Report Says a Green Electric Grid Faces Stiff Headwinds

Even as the cost of producing electricity comes down, the cost of delivering it goes up, resulting in higher bills for New Yorkers — with double-digit increases looming. And even though renewable energy is on the upswing, the state faces major headwinds in its drive to power its electric grid with renewable energy instead of fossil fuels.

Those are two of the conclusions of a new report by the New York Affordable Clean Power Alliance, whose authors write: "New York has fallen short of its ambitious renewable goals not because of insufficient developer interest in building new generation, but due to challenges created by local opposition, cost inflation, and insufficient investment into the transmission system."

A green electric grid is essential for co-op and condo boards trying to ditch fossil fuels in their building systems in order to reduce carbon emissions enough to comply with the city's climate law, Local Law 97.

The report goes on to dissect the challenges to renewable-energy development and how they can be overcome.

Transmission restraints. "One major constraint to renewable development in New York is the transmission bottleneck between the renewable-rich upstate regions and densely settled load centers downstate," the report states. "Inadequate transmission restricts the flow of electricity between regions and hinders renewable deployment by increasing development costs."

To meet this challenge, according to the state comptroller, the state plans to invest at least $26 billion in transmission and expand distribution capacity. The money is designed to help the state meets its goal of powering 70% the electric grid with renewable energy by 2030.

Cost inflation and the supply chain. "Rising material and labor costs, driven by inflation, have made it more expensive to construct and maintain renewable energy infrastructure," the report states. "Additionally, higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs for developers, slowing investment in new projects."

Reliability. "As New York transitions to a renewable-based grid," the report states, "reliability challenges may arise due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar power. Unlike fossil fuel plants, which provide dispatchable generation around the clock, renewables depend on weather conditions, making real-time supply and demand balancing more complex."

Local opposition. The challenges don't stop there. "New energy projects in New York also must deal with local opposition and Home Rule concerns, as some communities may try to prevent new construction in their districts," the report states. The authors cite three instances where local opposition either curtailed or derailed a solar farm, a lithium-battery farm and a Lake Ontario wind project.

The upshot: a crunch is coming. "The New York City area is forecasted to experience a generation shortfall starting in 2033, driven by an increase in peak demand and the planned retirement of existing dispatchable generation," the report states. "New York faces hurdles in maintaining reliability due to ambitious renewables targets, the projected retirement of much of its flexible fossil generation fleet, growing load, and extreme weather."

The report fails to mention other challenges, including President Trump's executive order temporarily withdrawing all areas of the outer continental shelf from offshore wind leasing while reviewing the federal government's leasing and permitting practices for wind projects.

New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019 requires the state and its energy producers and consumers to move away from fossil fuels by slashing gas emissions by 40% by 2030 with the goal of achieving 100% zero-carbon-emission electricity by 2040.

Members of the New York Affordable Clean Power Alliance include the Alliance for Clean Energy, Advanced Energy United, Independent Power Producers of NY, Battery and Energy Storage Technology Consortium, and the NY Solar Energies Industries Association. The report was prepared by FTI Consulting.